The diary of a planet

THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT

"Does the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?" ~ Edward Lorenz, 1963.

I learned about this amazing theory called the 'chaos theory' a few days back and I felt there is an absolute need for sharing information about something called the 'butterfly effect'. Read this for extra knowledge about something you weren't aware of! (What harm could it do?)

Chaos theory is a specific branch of mathematics that focuses on the study of chaos. Chaos theory stems from a broader study of Non-Linear Dynamics (NLD). NLD deals with common situations of daily life and expresses these systems using non-linear equations. This theory mainly studies complex, non-linear, dynamic systems that are sensitive and unpredictable.

The most fascinating part of chaos theory is its underlying principle i.e., the butterfly effect.

According to the butterfly effect, small changes in the initial conditions of chaotic systems (such as the atmosphere) can lead to large-scale and unpredictable variations in the future state of the system. The most commonly studied chaotic system is nature. The only prediction that can ever be made about nature is that it is unpredictable.

An analogy that is commonly used for explaining the butterfly effect is that a butterfly fluttering its wings at one location can cause a hurricane in a location far away. The fundamental instability of the system is to be blamed for such huge variations that occur as a result of slight imbalances. The butterfly effect is a daily, hourly, even a minute-by-minute occurrence.

This theory stemmed from the study od Edward Lorenz in 1961. A paper that was published in 1963 named 'Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow' acted as the foundation of the butterfly theory. He used a numerical computer model to make weather predictions. Let's not get into the details of his study but the gist was this:

His system gave him an output of 0.506127 which gave on kind of weather prediction. Upon performing calculations using 0.506 instead of 0.506127, an entirely different weather scenario was observed.

In 1972, he questioned if the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil can set off a tornado in Texas.

No, it doesn't literally mean that minor things like the flapping of butterfly's wings cause a tornado. This analogy is merely used to explain the fact that in large chaotic systems, predictions are not possible because there are too many factors that can be held accountable for change, and keeping track of all the unknown variables is not possible.

Let me put it this way: In a system, there are initial conditions. Sometimes changes in these conditions may set off a chain of events that may lead to a larger effect i.e., in one scenario a minor action of a butterfly's wings can change the initial conditions and may lead to a chain of events that end in a tornado. On the other hand, sometimes the changes in the initial condition may not lead to a tornado but it may lead to something else.

If we consider the chaotic system of an individual's life, a minor psychological fact of childhood has the potential to set off problems like depression or suicidal thoughts for that individual in the long run.

Another analogy that can be used is that of an avalanche, it begins with a small impact such as a loud noise or a burst of wind but the resulting effect increases as the layers of snow collapse, adding more energy to the process.